🔹 Trans-Pacific: Spot < Contract (Far East → US)
Even though this is a China → US story, when US demand softens and spot falls, carriers redeploy tonnage to other trades — including Asia → Australia.
That means Shanghai/Ningbo → Sydney/Melbourne rates may see spill-over softness, giving Australian importers leverage in Q4.
Impact: If you locked into long-term Asia → AUS contracts mid-year, you could be paying above current market. Ask about spot-indexed deals.
🔹 Capacity Moves: Air up; Ocean blank sailings (Golden Week)
Golden Week blank sailings mainly hit China main ports → global trades. For Australia, this means fewer sailings from Shanghai, Ningbo, Shenzhen to Sydney/Melbourne/Fremantle during late Sep–Oct.
At the same time, airfreight via Hong Kong, Guangzhou, Sydney, Melbourne is showing growth — a valve for urgent cargo.
Impact: SMEs bringing in inventory pre-Christmas need to book early or risk rollovers; airfreight is the fallback but costs more.
🔹 US Section 301 Maritime Fees (from Oct 14, 2025)
The new US fees target Chinese-owned or built ships calling at US ports.
For Australian exporters shipping grain, meat, cotton, wine to the US East/West Coast, costs could rise if cargo tranships over Asian hubs on Chinese tonnage.
Impact: Expect carriers to pass on surcharges into freight rates from Melbourne/Sydney/Brisbane → US. SMEs should confirm with carriers if their service strings involve COSCO/OOCL or other Chinese-built vessels.
Sources -Â reuters, TradeWinds, IMO, ArcticToday, Trans.info, SeaSNews, Xeneta, IATA, Sea-Intelligence, Drewry, USTR, CBP, European Commission, Deposco (Sep 2025).
Disclaimer – Market data is from public sources we consider reliable but has not been independently verified; accuracy is not guaranteed.