What’s happening now
Security risks continue to disrupt Red Sea transits, forcing many carriers to reroute vessels around Africa. Suez Canal traffic in January 2026 fell to the lowest level in a decade, with container transits down about 16.7% year-on-year.
Capacity through the canal has also been sharply reduced. Monthly container capacity via Suez fell to about 44% of global capacity in 2025, reflecting ongoing diversions.
Earlier disruptions saw traffic decline dramatically and freight rates spike by as much as 80% on key routes.
What could happen next
A phased return to the Suez route is likely rather than a sudden shift, as carriers assess risk.
However, when vessels do return:
- port congestion could surge
- vessel bunching may disrupt schedules
- freight rates could swing rapidly
Industry analysts warn the recovery phase may release capacity suddenly and push rates downward after volatility.
Why Australia feels the impact
Australia is not on the Suez route — but global capacity shifts affect:
- container availability
- schedule reliability
- freight pricing worldwide
Shipping networks now operate on resilience rather than efficiency, creating risk-driven pricing dynamics.
SME takeaway
Expect schedule unpredictability to continue
Allow extra lead time for shipments
Be prepared for rate volatility during route normalisation
The disruption phase is costly — but the recovery phase may create the next shockwave.
Source: BIMCO; Xeneta; global maritime risk reports (2026).
Disclaimer – Market data is from public sources we consider reliable but has not been independently verified; accuracy is not guaranteed