The global economy is facing several headwinds: slower growth in developed economies, inflationary pressures, rising interest rates, and geopolitical uncertainty. The World Bank and other institutions estimate global growth in 2025 at around 2.5-3%.
For Australia specifically:
- Export volumes for key commodities (iron ore, coal, gas) are under pressure due to weaker demand and price softening
- The current account deficit widened to about 1.9% of GDP in 2024, as imports rose ~5%.
- AUD remains weak vs USD (in the ~0.62–0.66 range), which means imports are more expensive while exports get a relative boost. (You can check latest FX data for updates.)
- Oil / bunker costs have been volatile but are generally in the US$80–90/mt band, which exerts pressure on fuel surcharges.
- Shipping markets are more stable than the peaks of 2021–22 but still vulnerable to shocks (weather, port disruption, regulatory costs).
What’s the impact for SMEs (importers/exporters)
- Margin squeeze on imports — as AUD weakens and fuel costs increase, landed cost rises
- Export opportunity—but risk — exporters may benefit from more competitive pricing abroad, but still face logistics volatility
- Cash flow and liquidity pressure — increased working capital tied up in longer lead times, buffer stocks, or surcharges
- Credit & currency exposure — managing USD payments, foreign currency exposure, and FX shocks becomes more critical
- Forecasting becomes harder — volatility in rates, demand, fuel, and regulation make planning uncertain
What actions to take
- Hedge your currency exposure
- Use forward contracts or options to lock in exchange rates ahead
- Whenever possible, negotiate USD- or local-currency payment terms
- Stress-test your margins
- Build scenarios (e.g. +5–10% in freight, +10–15% in fuel/charges)
- Identify which SKUs or trade lanes are most vulnerable
- Keep buffer inventory & flexible sourcing
- Maintain safety stock in key end-markets
- Diversify origin sources so a shock in one region doesn’t cripple supply
- Negotiate with buyers / suppliers
- Be transparent about rising cost pressures
- Incorporate escalation clauses or cost-sharing in long-term contracts
- Monitor macro & trade indices
- Watch ocean freight indices (Xeneta, Drewry), commodity price trends, and currency forecasts
- Stay close to your forwarders to receive real-time alerts of market changes
- Lean on data & analytics
- Use dashboards to track landed cost per shipment, variance vs budget
- Benchmark performance by trade lane to detect anomalies early
Sources: Magellan Logistics (export pressures, current account data); Seabridge Global Logistics (market commentary); TFG Global – Freight Market Update July 2025 (volatility and disruptions); Raw Global Freight Forwarders Melbourne – 2025 Ocean Freight Market Update (importer perspective).
Disclaimer – Market data is from public sources we consider reliable but has not been independently verified; accuracy is not guaranteed.