Global trade in 2026 is being shaped by a major shift between China and the United States, impacting how shipping capacity and cargo flows are distributed worldwide.
China remains a dominant exporter, with strong manufacturing output and early-year trade growth of around 18%, although momentum is slowing as global demand weakens. At the same time, China is tightening control over certain exports — including fuel shipments, which dropped sharply to just 320,000 tonnes in early April, around one-sixth of last year’s level.
On the other side, the US is reshaping global shipping through demand shifts and supply chain adjustments. As Middle East disruptions reduce oil availability, global buyers are increasingly turning to the US for energy supply. This has driven a surge in tanker demand, with freight rates for some vessels jumping from around $60,000/day to over $300,000/day.
What this means globally:
• China = controlled exports + manufacturing strength
• US = demand-driven market + energy supply shift
For Australia, this creates a complex environment. Shipping lines are reallocating capacity toward higher-margin US routes, while China’s selective trade approach is changing demand patterns across Asia.
What You Should Be Doing Now
• Monitor both China supply trends and US demand cycles
• Diversify export markets — don’t rely on one region
• Plan shipments earlier during global demand spikes
• Stay flexible with routing and carrier options
China and the US are reshaping global trade in different ways — and both are influencing shipping capacity. Australian businesses need to adapt to both forces, not just one.
Source: Reuters Trade Data, US Shipping Reports & Global Market Updates (April 2026)
Disclaimer – Market data is from public sources we consider reliable but has not been independently verified; accuracy is not guaranteed